The 2024 election is just around the corner, and predictions are rolling in. But here’s a forecast that will shock many: Donald Trump is on track to win in a landslide against Joe Biden. Let’s dive into the data and see why this race isn’t going to be close at all.
Safe States for Trump: A Commanding Lead
According to the latest forecast from Golden Crown Politics, Trump is set to dominate in several key states. Starting with the safe states, Trump is already way ahead with a 126-86 lead over Biden. But it doesn’t stop there. Iowa, Ohio, Florida, and Texas are all moving into the “safe” column for Trump for the first time. These states are predicted to see Trump winning by more than 15 points each!
Take Florida, for example. Most predictions have Trump winning Florida by around 5 to 10 points. But if you look deeper into the numbers, the story is different. Current polling aggregates show Trump with an 11-point lead. When you factor in the historical polling bias that overestimated Democrats by almost six points in 2020, Trump’s real lead jumps to over 16 points. This isn’t just wishful thinking—it’s what the data shows.
National Polling Bias: The Real Story
National polls often have a Democratic bias. In 2020, this bias was about 4.5 points. If we adjust for this in the current polling, Trump is leading by 6.4 points in the popular vote for 2024. This would be a significant shift to the right compared to the 2020 election. The numbers are clear: Trump is on track for a huge victory.
Electoral Votes: Trump’s Path to Victory
Trump’s lead isn’t just in the popular vote. He’s also way ahead in the Electoral College. With 219 safe electoral votes compared to Biden’s 86, Trump only needs a few more states to win the presidency. This kind of lead is almost insurmountable for Biden.
Biden’s States: Struggling to Keep Up
Let’s look at the states where Biden is likely to win. These include Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Illinois, New York, Connecticut, Delaware, and Rhode Island. Even in these states, Biden’s margins are shrinking. For instance, New York is now an 8-point win for Biden, down from the double digits he enjoyed in the past.
Biden’s lean states—where he’s predicted to win by 1 to 5 points—include New Jersey, Maine, and Delaware. But even these states show signs of shifting. In New Jersey, Biden’s lead has dropped from 16 points in 2020 to just four points now. This is due to various factors, including a significant swing among Arab and Jewish voters away from Biden.
Trump’s Likely States: Swing States Turn Red
Trump’s likely states are where the real surprises come in. Traditional swing states from 2020 are now firmly in Trump’s camp. Wisconsin and Michigan are both likely to go to Trump by about 8 points each. Pennsylvania is also expected to see a 9-point win for Trump.
In the Sun Belt, the story is similar. Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada are all predicted to see Trump winning by around 12 points each. Arizona is also leaning heavily toward Trump with an 8-point lead. These are massive margins that show just how one-sided this race could be.
Stunning Flips: Deep Blue States Turning Red
Now, let’s talk about the flips. This is where it gets really interesting. States that have been solidly blue are now at risk of flipping to Trump. Minnesota is predicted to go red with a 2-point lead for Trump. New Mexico is also leaning towards Trump with a 3-point lead. Nebraska’s second district, Virginia, and New Hampshire are all expected to flip to Trump as well.
These flips aren’t just possible—they’re likely, given the current data and historical polling biases. For example, Virginia, which is now a one-point race according to the Hill’s polling aggregate, could easily lean Republican when you consider past polling errors. This makes Trump’s lead even more impressive.
Final Thoughts
The data is clear: Donald Trump is set to win the 2024 election in a landslide. With massive leads in key states and a significant advantage in the Electoral College, the race is almost over before it begins. Biden’s shrinking margins and the potential flips of traditionally blue states make this forecast even more compelling.
This isn’t just speculation—it’s backed by solid data and historical trends. If the current numbers hold, Trump will secure a decisive victory in November 2024. The political landscape is shifting, and the 2024 election is shaping up to be one of the most one-sided in recent history.
What do you think about this forecast? Do you agree with the data? Let us know in the comment section below! Your thoughts and opinions are important to us.